Posted by: iam0nly1 | June 16, 2008

Obama Planning to Win Without Ohio and Florida?

Yep, that’s right. Apparently, David Plouffe thinks that by picking up Virginia, Georgia, a few Rocky Mountain states and Michigan that Obama can forgo Ohio and Florida and still win the election. 

From AP:

The presumed Democratic nominee’s electoral math counts on holding onto the states Kerry won, among them Michigan (17 electoral votes), where Obama campaigns on Monday and Tuesday. Plouffe said most of the Kerry states should be reliable for Obama, but three currently look relatively competitive with Republican rival John McCain — Pennsylvania, Michigan and particularly New Hampshire.

Asked about his remarks, Plouffe said Ohio and Florida start out very competitive — but he stressed that they are not tougher than other swing states and said Obama will play “extremely hard” for both. But he said the strategy is not reliant on one or two states.

So, in politispeak, Plouffe has rightly conceded Ohio and Florida. Point blank, Obama cannot win them. It’s the demographics stupid!  So, add 47 electoral votes to McCain. 

This is a very dangerous gamble. In short, Virginia, Georgia, and Michigan become MUST WINS for Obama. Even if Obama picks up the Rocky Mountain states of Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, not to mention Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire (all three of which are in contention) he will still lose by 2 electoral votes, John McCain 270, Obama 268. 

In short, staking your Presidential campaign on Virginia, a state that has gone Republican since at least 1968, and Georgia that has only gone Democratic three times since 1972, twice for their native son Carter and once, in ’92, for Bill Clinton, is a sure fire way to lose an election. Not to mention being a Democrat who has to fight for Michigan and Pennsylvania. 

To see just how perilous this strategy is, head on over to 270towin.com and plug in the states yourself. 

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Responses

  1. […] we pointed out a few weeks back, the Obama campaign seems to know that Ohio and Florida are going to be a stretch, so they are looking for alternate paths to 270, which means they are […]

  2. […] we pointed out a few weeks back, the Obama campaign seems to know that Ohio and Florida are going to be a stretch, so they are looking for alternate paths to 270, which means they are […]

  3. […] of all, obviously Obama is a great candidate who is running a great 50-state race [except for OH and FL]. That much cannot be denied. But he’s had a rough couple of weeks [umm, ya […]

  4. Josh,

    It’s June, and the demographics in Ohio do not favor Obama one bit. Trust, they know this, which is why they are telling everyone they can win without it, not to mention Florida.

    He will lose OH and FL, and with them the GE.

  5. I would not try to win w/o Ohio. hard to see how Obama would lose Ohio but win Virginia. Possible yes, probable no.

  6. I hardly think Obama is conceding those states. He’s merely saying that there are other paths to victory other than Ohio and Florida, which is what everyone is obsessed with.

    Besides, why would Obama concede Ohio when he is expanding his lead there? (and they flat out say that they WILL compete for them)


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